Download A Methodology for Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems by Kurt Weichselberger PDF

By Kurt Weichselberger

In this publication the ensuing use of chance conception is proposed for dealing with uncertainty in specialist platforms. it's proven that equipment violating this recommendation could have risky results (e.g., the Dempster-Shafer rule and the strategy utilized in MYCIN). the need of a few specifications for an accurate combining of doubtful details in professional structures is verified and appropriate ideas are supplied. the prospect is considered that period estimates are given rather than detailed information regarding chances. For combining details containing period estimates ideas are supplied that are necessary in lots of cases.

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Example text

As was pointed out earlier one should generally distinguish between the use of such rules in statistical inference and their use in diagnostic systems. The characteristic feature of the latter is the combination of pieces of evidence, each of which consists of an observation of one relevant attribute. It has to be supposed that for each observation of each of the attributes probability statements about the states of nature in question are given. 21) can be applied in order to combine two statements stemming from two sources.

This means that very rare events can never be recognized even if many circumstances are strongly in favour of them.

18) and with the interpretation of Li as belief functions and Ui as upper probabilities. [] Through this definition the requirements of Shafer's theory of belief functions, concerning the concept of k - P R I s - which in itself is not a topic of Shafer's - are characterized. 2): Be 0 = {El . . , Ek} k j~ILj - Li+~ti~2+;~i3' + "'" +;ti~n-I Be] (TEl) = 1 - U i = where k j I-I E2 = Y, Y~ m(EJl U EJ2) Jl =2 J2 =1 k Ji-1 jl ~" j2;~" and N1 analogously corresponds to the 1-times s u m m a t i o n of m(Ejl U .

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