By Stanley K. Smith
This publication specializes in the method and research of nation and native inhabitants projections. It describes the main regular information resources and alertness thoughts for 4 varieties of projection tools: cohort-component, pattern extrapolation, structural versions, and microsimulation. It covers the elements of inhabitants progress, resources of knowledge, the formation of assumptions, the advance of evaluate standards, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of varied projection equipment and will pay precise recognition to the original difficulties that signify small-area projections. The authors supply functional assistance to demographers, planners, marketplace analysts, and others known as directly to build kingdom and native inhabitants projections. They use many examples and illustrations and current feedback for facing targeted populations, precise situations, and insufficient or unreliable info. They describe strategies for controlling one set of projections to a different, for interpolating among time issues, for sub-dividing age teams, and for developing projections of population-related variables (e.g., college enrollment, households). They talk about the function of judgment and the significance of the political context within which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for determination making in a global of competing calls for and restricted assets. This accomplished e-book will supply readers with an figuring out not just of the mechanics of the main well-known inhabitants projection tools, but additionally of the various complicated concerns affecting their building, interpretation, assessment, and use.
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Additional resources for A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections
The last part of the book focuses on evaluation and analysis. Chapter 12 describes several criteria for evaluating projections and compares the methods discussed in this book according to these criteria. Chapter 13 analyzes forecast accuracy and bias, covering alternative error measures, factors affecting accuracy and bias, the potential for combining projections, and ways to account for uncertainty. These two chapters will help readers judge the validity of population projections and determine how useful they are likely to be for decision-making purposes.
The most important geographic areas defined for statistical purposes are blocks, block groups, and census tracts. Blocks are geographic areas bounded on all sides by visible features such as streets or railroad tracks or by invisible boundaries such as city or township limits. They are the smallest geographic units for which data are tabulated. Block groups are clusters of blocks and generally contain between 600 and 3,000 residents. They do not cross state, county, or census tract boundaries but may cross other types of boundaries.
The size of the population. Its distribution across geographic areas. , age, sex, race, and other characteristics). Changes in population size, distribution, and composition over time. The determinants and consequences of population growth. In this chapter, we focus on the first four of these topics. We describe a number of basic demographic concepts, define a number of commonly used terms, and discuss several sources of demographic data. Our objective is to give readers with little training or experience in formal demography a brief introduction to the field.